FINANCE
14
CONSTRUCTION EUROPE
SEPTEMBER 2014
RESERVE CURRENCIES
Beginning
End
Change
Change
of period of period
(%)
British Pound
0.7939
0.8009
0.0070
0.89%
Japanese Yen
137.88
137.84
-0.03
-0.02%
Swiss Franc
1.2142
1.2100
-0.0042
-0.35%
US Dollar
1.3609
1.3283
-0.0326
-2.40%
EUROPEAN CURRENCIES
British Pound
0.7939
0.8009
0.0070
0.89%
Bulgarian Leva
1.9558
1.9559
0.0001
0.01%
Czech Koruna
27.431
27.766
0.335
1.22%
Danish Krone
7.4555
7.4553
-0.0002
0.00%
Hungarian Forint
310.28
313.74
3.47
1.12%
Norwegian Krone
8.3799
8.1597
-0.2202
-2.63%
Polish Zloty
4.1431
4.1820
0.0389
0.94%
Romanian Lei
4.4178
4.4034
-0.0144
-0.33%
Swedish Krona
9.2087
9.1613
-0.0474
-0.52%
Swiss Franc
1.2142
1.2100
-0.0042
-0.35%
Period: Week 28 - 34
Index
Beginning
End
Change
Change
of period of period
(%)
CEE (Equipment)
260.19
261.36
1.18
0.45%
CEM (Materials)
162.82
157.39
-5.43
-3.33%
CEC (Contractors)
192.88
185.41
-7.48
-3.88%
CET (Total)
200.14
196.23
-3.91
-1.95%
Dow
16915
17039
124
0.74%
FTSE 100
6687
6783
96
1.43%
Nikkei 225
15164
15539
375
2.47%
CAC 40
4323
4290
-33
-0.77%
DAX Xetra
9670
9413
-257
-2.66%
Period: Week 28 - 34
VALUE OF €1
KEY INDEXES
Summer slowdown
August saw confidence in the European
construction sector remain positive,
according to the
CE
Barometer survey,
but some aspects of sentiment have
come off the boil thanks to the
holiday season.
The overall climate of the August
survey remained strong, with
a positive balance of 22% – an
almost identical result to July. The
balance figure is the percentage
of positive responses, minus the
number of negative ones, so a figure
like +22% for the overall climate is a
strong indicator of positive confidence.
However, digging into the data revealed some interesting views
about where that market strength comes from. By far the most
strongly positive views were about the future, with a balance of
+37.3% of respondents saying they expected activity levels to be
higher in a year’s time compared to now.
There was also a very clear view that the market had improved
compared to a year ago, with +22.9% of respondents saying they
were busier this August than 12 months ago.
However, there was a sharp dip in month-to-month work, with
a balance of just +5.9% of respondents saying they were busier in
August than July. This measure of sentiment has been comfortably
above +10% all year, and at times has been as high as +25%.
This may not be anything to worry about. The
CE
Barometer often
shows a fall in activity over the height of summer, and this is usually
followed by a rebound in September and October.
This is illustrated by the clock diagram, where the strong sentiment
about the future, but low current activity levels indicates an
upswing on the horizon. The clock indicates only which way the
market is heading, and how many people share that view – the
length of the arrow is the strength of the sentiment. It does not
indicate how big market growth might be.
ce
CE
BAROMETER
like Caterpillar and Deere saw
their share prices fall between
weeks 28 and 34, as was the
case for smaller companies
like Astec, Manitowoc and
Terex.
Many of the gains in the
sector came from the Japanese
manufacturers, with Hitachi,
Kobe Steel, Komatsu, Kubota and
Tadano all up.
There
was
also
good
support from the European
manufacturers, led by Metso’s
21.82% rise, which was driven
by good half year results and a
TAKE PART
The survey, which takes just a one minute to complete, is open to
all construction professionals working in Europe. The
CE
Barometer
survey is open from the 1st to the 15th of each month on our
website.
■
Full information can be found at
R
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has not lowered interest rates as
much as other central banks, or
embarked on quantitative easing.
However,
with
Europe
continuing to look decidedly
behind the pace in terms of
its economic recovery and the
threat of deflation mounting, the
currency may weaken anyway
and should certainly go down if
the ECB starts printing money.
Fortunes in the Eurozone are
also likely to affect stock markets,
as its troubled currency and the
questions raised by the Banco
Espirito Santo affair are among
the chief economic worries at the
moment, alongside the West’s
relationship with Russia and
unrest in the Middle East.
ce
bold strategic announcement in
which the company said it would
shift to a more services-oriented
business model.
CURRENCIES
Poor economic data for the
Eurozone and deflation concerns
saw the Euro lose ground to
the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc
and US Dollar between weeks
28 and 34, with the biggest fall
being 2.40% against the Dollar.
It also lost some ground to other
European currencies, but was up
against the British Pound and a
few others.
The Euro has been relatively
strong since before the financial
crisis, partly because the ECB
The Euro has been relatively
strong since before the
financial crisis, partly because
the ECB has not lowered
interest rates as much as other
central banks, or embarked on
quantitative easing
prices fall, with Cimpor and
Italcementi suffering the most.
The only companies to see a rise
over the six-week period were
Kone, Saint-Gobain andWolseley.
However, it was a different story
for equipment manufacturers,
with the CEE Index managing a
modest 0.45% gain over the same
period.
Although one might imagine
this was because of the number
of US companies in the Index
following the upward trend of
the Dow, this wasn’t the case.
Big capitalisation US players
