FINANCE
18
CONSTRUCTION EUROPE
DECEMBER 2013-JANUARY 2014
Again, the sector was split
between companies enjoying
rising share prices and those
seeing them fall – the stand-out
being Titan Cement’s 9.45% gain.
Unlike the CEC, the CEM has
already overtaken its previous
post-crisis high thanks to a slow
but steady rally over the last 18
months.
Another year or so of the same
sort of growth, and the CEM
could get back to its all-time
high level close to 190 points.
However, making long-term
predictions in uncertain times
would be very foolhardy.
DYNAMIC EQUIPMENT
Compared to the contractor and
materials sectors, the equipment
industry had a dynamic month
on the stock markets, although
its 1.99% gain between weeks 44
and 48 was nothing to get too
excited about.
As one might expect, some
of the best gains came from
Japanese companies, which were
RESERVE CURRENCIES
Beginning
End
Change
Change
of period of period
(%)
British Pound
0.8459
0.8281
-0.0178
-2.10
Japanese Yen
132.94
139.44
6.50
4.89
Swiss Franc
1.2308
1.2306
0.000
-0.02
US Dollar
1.3560
1.3546
-0.0014
-0.10
EUROPEAN CURRENCIES
British Pound
0.8459
0.8281
-0.0178
-2.10
Bulgarian Leva
1.9559
1.9560
0.0001
0.01
Czech Koruna
25.78
27.43
1.643
6.37
Danish Krone
7.4587
7.4599
0.0012
0.02
Hungarian Forint
294.86
303.89
9.02
3.06
Norwegian Krone
8.0780
8.3130
0.2350
2.91
Polish Zloty
4.1759
4.2005
0.0246
0.59
Romanian Lei
4.4349
4.4349
0.0000
0.00
Swedish Krona
8.7898
8.8863
0.0965
1.10
Swiss Franc
1.2308
1.2306
-0.0002
-0.02
Period: Week 44 - 48
Index
Beginning
End
Change
Change
of period of period
(%)
CEE (Equipment)
246.29
251.18
4.89
1.99
CEM (Materials)
151.13
151.70
0.57
0.38
CEC (Contractors)
157.87
158.99
1.12
0.71
CET (Total)
181.99
184.03
2.03
1.12
Dow
15546
16059
513
3.30
FTSE 100
6731
6614
-118
-1.75
Nikkei 225
14202
15655
1454
10.23
CAC 40
4300
4288
-12
-0.29
DAX Xetra
9034
9411
377
4.18
Period: Week 44 - 48
VALUE OF €1
KEY INDEXES
Sentiment holds steady
The results of the November
CE
Barometer
survey were almost unchanged from
October, providing a fourth straight
month of fairly robust confidence in
the European construction sector.
The overall climate edged up
from October’s balance figure of
+19.9% to +21.9%. The balance
figure is the percentage of positive
responses, minus the number of
negative ones.
A significant change in November
was a big leap in the number of
respondents saying activity levels were
higher than a year ago. This measure of
confidence was up at a positive balance of +19.4%, compared to the
low single-digit figures of August, September and October. Indeed,
this was the highest this measure has been since late 2011. It was
this leap in confidence that pulled up the composite
CE
Climate
figure to +21.9%.
Once again there was a lot of optimism about prospects over the
next 12 months, although at a balance of +35.5%, sentiment was a
little weaker than in September and October.
At a balance of +10.8%, the picture for improvements in month-
on-month activity in November was similar – a score comfortably in
positive territory, but down a little from October, when the figure
was +13.4%.
With a fourth month of improving figures for the
CE
Barometer,
the recovery in the European construction sector seems to be
taking root. The increased optimism about future prospects is
particularly encouraging.
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CE
BAROMETER
pulled-along by the buoyancy
of the Nikkei. Kubota stood out
with its 20.06% gain, and the
only real disappointment was
Komatsu, which showed no net
improvement over the month.
Over all, the sector had a positive
four weeks, with only Bell, CNH,
Doosan and Manitou losing
ground. However, most gains
were fairly subdued single-digit
improvements, especially for the
high capitalisation companies
like Caterpillar, Deere and Volvo,
which set the tone for the sector.
CURRENCIES
November was mixed for the
Euro. It gained ground against
most European currencies, along
with the Japanese Yen, but there
were small slides against the
Dollar and Swiss Franc, and a
more pronounced 2.10% drop
against the Pound.
In fact, the relationships
between the Euro and the Pound,
Dollar and Franc have not been
too volatile this year.
The significant movement has
come against the Yen, which is
TAKE PART
The survey, which takes just a one minute to complete, is open to
all construction professionals working in Europe. The
CE
Barometer
survey is open from the 1st to the 15th of each month on our
website.
■
Full information can be found at
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Investors will
probably be
toasting a
profitable 2013.
The FTSE is up
nearly 10% on the
year, the Dow 20%
and the Nikkei 225
over 45%
now at its weakest against the
Euro since late 2008.
The collapse of the Yen over the
last 18 months has been striking,
falling from €1=JPY95 in mid-
2012 to the current level, close to
€1=JPY140. That is approaching
a 50% fall in value.
It is of course good news for
Japanese exporters, because it
makes their products cheaper
and/or more profitable in the
Eurozone.
OUTLOOK
If the markets follow the usual
form, their rally should continue
into the New Year.
The air is not usually let out of
the balloon until full-year results
start to be published in late
January.
In the meantime, investors will
probably be toasting a profitable
2013. The FTSE is up nearly 10%
on the year, the Dow 20% and
the Nikkei 225 over 45%.
Even the construction sector,
which has not benefited from the
safe haven status that attracts
money to these blue-chip stock
market indicia, is looking good to
finish the year in the black, with
the CET up about 6.5%.
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